Entering 2024, Pakistan finds itself entangled in a multi-faceted crisis, lacking a definite plan for navigating through it.
Since its inception in 1947, Pakistan has perennially found itself at a crucial juncture, and the narrative surrounding each new year typically paints it as a pivotal moment. The approaching 2024 is no exception, with a noteworthy shift in emphasis from prospects of progress ("make") to the looming specter of setbacks ("break"). This transformation is primarily attributed to Pakistan grappling with what is termed a polycrisis, where the gravity of political, economic, security, and institutional challenges has taken on existential dimensions. As the nation enters 2024, a discernible roadmap for navigating out of this multifaceted crisis is conspicuously absent. Consequently, the leadership is likely to resort to familiar quick-fix approaches, perpetuating Pakistan's historical struggle at the crossroads.
The upcoming General Elections scheduled for February 8, 2024, introduce an element of uncertainty. Unlike the typical anticipation accompanying such events, there is a palpable lack of enthusiasm. This can be attributed in part to the sidelining of Imran Khan, arguably the most popular political figure, who faces imprisonment. The prevailing consensus suggests that former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, enjoying military support, is poised to emerge victorious. However, expectations lean towards a scenario where his party falls short of a majority, necessitating a coalition government—a situation reminiscent of the 13-party coalition that replaced Imran Khan in April 2022. The military's influence in steering this coalition government through its partners is anticipated, potentially leading to political fragility. The uncertainty surrounding the elections, compounded by civil-military tensions, underscores the challenges Pakistan faces in achieving political stability.
Economically, despite recent modest improvements, Pakistan is projected to remain in crisis mode throughout 2024. With an estimated GDP growth of around 2 percent and inflation exceeding 20 percent, coupled with a depreciating rupee, the economic outlook appears grim. The precarious Balance of Payments situation, coupled with mounting external payment obligations, exacerbates Pakistan's debt problem. Efforts to offload state-owned enterprises may provide temporary relief but do not address the need for deep structural reforms essential for economic sustainability. The impending negotiation of Pakistan's 24th International Monetary Fund (IMF) program is anticipated to introduce harsh conditions, exacerbating economic distress. While some investments from Middle Eastern countries are on the horizon, their impact remains uncertain.
The terrorist threat continues to escalate in 2024, with Pakistan grappling with the repercussions of jihadist strategic assets turning toxic. The potential for jihadist attacks poses a significant challenge, necessitating difficult choices in managing the escalating threat. The relationship with Afghanistan, particularly in dealing with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), adds complexity to the security landscape. Pakistan's aspirations of becoming a regional connectivity hub face significant obstacles, with the war on terror imposing substantial economic costs.
Anticipation of a thaw in relations with India arises following elections in both countries. However, for meaningful engagement to occur, Pakistan may need to reconsider its stance on the constitutional reforms in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The recent Supreme Court ruling in India directing the restoration of J&K's statehood could offer a diplomatic opening. While challenges persist, a resumption of diplomatic relations and trade could be a step forward, provided Pakistan does not insist on making the J&K issue a central point of contention.
In conclusion, as Pakistan approaches 2024, optimism is in short supply. The year ahead is poised to be challenging, marked by multiple fronts that demand careful navigation. Efforts to balance relations with China and the United States face hurdles, especially if Sino-US ties remain strained. While Pakistan aims to deepen ties with both nations, the sustainability of Chinese investments, particularly in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, is jeopardized by Pakistan's insolvency. Engagement with the U.S. is anticipated to be security-focused. In the Middle East, Pakistan's hopes for financial support may be tempered, with significant investments unlikely. In essence, the outlook for 2024 offers little cause for celebration in Pakistan.
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