Who's to blame for the Iran twin blasts that killed 95: ISIS, Israel, or the US?

Iran has pledged to take action against those responsible for the twin bombings that resulted in the death of 95 individuals during a ceremony commemorating the passing of military commander Qasem Soleimani. Although Tehran has accused Israel and the US of being involved in the explosions, analysts suggest that the incidents may be linked to ISIS or other extremist groups.

In Pic - A crowd assembles at the location of an explosion in the city of Kerman, approximately 820 kilometers southeast of the capital Tehran, Iran. On Wednesday, two bombs detonated during a ceremony honoring a notable Iranian general who was killed by a US drone strike in 2020. Credit - Associated Press.

As individuals grieve their losses and attend to the wounded, speculation about the perpetrators behind the explosions intensifies. On Wednesday, January 3rd, a series of consecutive blasts claimed the lives of at least 95 people near the burial site of the late military commander Qasem Soleimani.

Following the incidents, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, declared the occurrence a "terrorist attack" and promised a "harsh response." In a statement, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed, "The evil and criminal enemies of the Iranian nation once again created a disaster and martyred a large number of dear people in Kerman. This disaster will have a harsh response, God willing."

President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran also issued a statement, asserting, "Undoubtedly, the perpetrators of this cowardly act will soon be identified and punished for their heinous actions by the capable security and law enforcement forces. The enemies of the nation should know that such actions can never disrupt the solid determination of the Iranian nation."

As Iran pledges to take action, the focus turns to unraveling the identity of those responsible for the explosion and the potential repercussions this incident may have in escalating regional tensions.

Twin blasts in Kerman

On Wednesday, a pair of explosions occurred during a ceremony in the Iranian city of Kerman, marking the anniversary of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the leader of Iran's al-Quds force, who was killed in a US air strike four years ago.

According to Iranian media reports, the first explosion took place 2,300 feet (700 meters) from Soleimani's grave, while the second occurred 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) away as pilgrims were visiting the site. Iran's interior minister, Ahmad Vahidi, later informed the media that the initial explosion happened at 3 pm local time, followed by a more destructive blast 20 minutes later when additional pilgrims arrived to assist the injured.

Images from Iranian state media depicted large crowds fleeing the area after the explosions. Additionally, footage showed injured individuals being transported from the scene with visible injuries, and ambulances navigating through dense crowds as they left the site.

In Pic - Relatives of the explosion victims congregate in the hospital courtyard in the city of Kerman, situated approximately 820 kilometers southeast of the capital Tehran, Iran. Credit - Associated Press.

The explosions, resulting in 95 fatalities and over 200 injuries, represent the deadliest incident in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

A woman, wounded in the blast, later recounted, "I heard a very loud sound and then felt pain in my back … then I could not feel my legs."

According to Tasnim media, the explosions were caused by two briefcases loaded with explosives strategically placed at the entrance of the cemetery and remotely detonated.

Despite no one claiming responsibility for the attack, Iranian authorities have classified it as a terrorist act, with some officials suggesting possible involvement by Israel and the United States.

Blame game over the blasts

The responsibility for the explosions remains unclaimed by any specific group or entity, leaving numerous possibilities open. While many analysts suggest the involvement of various resistance groups within Iran, others entertain the idea of external forces, such as Israel or the United States.

There is also speculation implicating Sunni jihadist groups like the Islamic State (IS), which has previously carried out attacks on both civilians and security forces within the country.

Despite these theories, on Thursday, Iran officially accused Israel and the US of orchestrating the blasts. Mohammad Jamshidi, the political deputy to the Iranian president, conveyed this sentiment on X, stating, "Washington says the USA and Israel had no role in the terrorist attack in Kerman, Iran. Really? A fox smells its own lair first."

"Make no mistake. The responsibility for this crime lies with the US and Zionist regimes (Israel), and terrorism is just a tool," he added.

The US has flatly denied any involvement in the blast. A senior Biden administration official indicated that the explosion resembled a terrorist attack, stating, "I think it's just based on the MO (modus operandi); it does look like a terrorist attack, the type of thing we've seen ISIS do in the past. And as far as we're aware, that's our going assumption at the moment."

US State Department spokesperson Matt Miller, in a press briefing, mentioned that the US lacks independent information about the explosions and has "no reason to believe that Israel was involved." Separately, White House national security spokesman John Kirby also asserted that the US had seen no indication that Israel was behind the blasts.

Furthermore, some analysts also dispute the notion that the explosions align with Israel's typical modus operandi, emphasizing that the nature of the blasts causing mass casualties doesn't fit Israel's profile.

Additional experts have pointed out that Iran has a extensive history of confronting various jihadist and militant groups, making it difficult to pinpoint the specific responsible party.

Notably, ISIS has carried out significant attacks in the past, targeting civilians in Shiite-majority Iran. An example is the October 2022 attack at the Shahcheragh Shrine in Shiraz, where fifteen individuals lost their lives as ISIS members opened fire on worshippers entering the shrine for prayers.

In Pic - During a ceremony honoring the late Revolutionary Guard General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone attack in Iraq in 2020, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi delivers a speech. Credit - Associated Press.

A critical juncture for the region.

Nonetheless, experts have emphasized that, despite the absence of confirmation regarding the perpetrators of the blasts, the incidents will undoubtedly contribute to increased instability in a region already facing significant dangers.The timing of the explosions is noteworthy, occurring just a day after the death of senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut. While Israel neither confirmed nor denied involvement, both Hamas and Hezbollah attributed blame to Israel and pledged retaliation.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah issued a strong warning against Israel on Wednesday, asserting, "If the enemy thinks of waging a war on Lebanon, we will fight without restraint, without rules, without limits, and without restrictions. We are not afraid of war," Nasrallah stated, refraining from issuing a specific threat. "For now," he mentioned, "we are fighting on the frontline following meticulous calculations."

Analysts are observing a heightened tension in the region in 2024, emphasizing the importance of calm and thoughtful leadership prevailing among the regional authorities.