India Might Find A Silver Lining In Pakistan's Politico-Economic Crisis

India's rising economic growth and its subsequent increase in military expenditures are gradually diminishing the relevance of Pakistan in the context of India's security and overall well-being. The longstanding strategic equilibrium, which traditionally hinged on the role of the Pakistani armed forces as guarantors of the nation's security, is now facing a crisis. This crisis is exacerbated by the evolving geopolitical dynamics, particularly in Pakistan's western borders, where historical paradigms are shifting due to strained relations with the Taliban and an assertive Iran.

The Islamic State and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan have intensified their operations within the borders of Pakistan, Image Courtesy - Associated Press

Pakistan, which historically concentrated its military efforts on its western borders, is grappling with a changing formula. The previous focus on a troubled Afghanistan and a cautious Iran to direct force toward India is giving way to new challenges. The rise of a belligerent Taliban, uninterested in playing a subservient role, and an expansionist Iran with ballistic missile strikes are reshaping the security landscape.

The strained relationship between Pakistan and Iran not only poses threats to economic aspects, especially concerning the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), but also creates the potential for a security vacuum on the western border. Sectarian divisions between Shia and Sunni communities further complicate matters, with concerns about the emergence of Iran-backed Shia militias intervening to halt the ongoing ethnic cleansing of Shias in Pakistan.

Pakistan's forceful deportation of Afghans has strained relations with Kabul, leading to violent clashes between Pakistani forces and Afghan Taliban border guards. Afghanistan's rejection of the Durand Line adds complexity to the situation. Pakistan's attempts to counter these challenges through military actions have proven largely ineffective, while Afghanistan establishes its own launchpad, combining Afghan Taliban and Pakistani elements.

On the economic front, Pakistan is facing a severe liquidity crisis, characterized by high inflation, widening current account gaps, and persistent trade deficits. Despite seeking financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and China, these measures offer only temporary relief, deferring the resolution of deeper economic issues. Pakistan's increasing dependency on external support compromises its international sovereignty, limiting its autonomy in foreign affairs.

The ethnic landscape of Pakistan, dominated by Punjabi influence in the military and economy, has exacerbated dissent among other ethnic groups. Regions like Balochistan, Sindh, and among the Pashtoon people are witnessing heightened unrest amid a challenging economic environment. Pakistan's vulnerability is escalating, and its structural economic issues, coupled with ethnic tensions, present significant challenges for the nation. As India's economic growth and military capabilities continue to progress, Pakistan's significance to India's security and well-being is gradually diminishing.