The conflict that unfolded between the Palestinian non-state organization, Hamas, and Israel on October 7 was widely perceived by analysts as a strategic move to trigger a significant international crisis. The intent was to draw global attention to the waning importance of the Middle East, particularly in the context of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Hamas was apprehensive that a potential reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, orchestrated by China, coupled with the United States shifting focus to the Indo-Pacific, could allow Israel to assert dominance in the region. Such a scenario, it feared, could consign the Palestinian cause and the 'two-state' solution to historical oblivion.
Smoke ascends during an Israeli ground operation in Khan Younis, observed from a tent camp offering refuge to displaced Palestinians in Rafah, located in the southern Gaza Strip on January 30, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Credit - Reuters
Over the course of four months, the conflict escalated,
resulting in the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and foreigners, with nearly 250
hostages taken on October 7. The toll on the Palestinian side was far more
devastating, with 25,000 lives lost in Gaza and extensive infrastructure
damage, potentially depriving the Palestinian people of normalcy for
generations. Remarkably, both sides failed to achieve their realist objectives:
the destruction of Hamas and heightened international interest leading to a
potential resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Israel, burdened by the economic strain of maintaining a
350,000-strong army, faced leadership challenges. The war cabinet, having been
deceived by Hamas, found itself chastised and embarrassed. In response, Israel's
actions became irrational and unreasonable, driven by a desire to save face.
The intense use of munitions yielded little military success against an
asymmetric adversary like Hamas. The failure to recognize the political
significance of Hamas allowed it to gain prominence.
While Israel's withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 and its refusal
to adopt a 'no response' policy to recent Hamas actions were justified, the
complex options faced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu involved a kinetic
approach. However, seeking victory by eliminating the last Hamas terrorist
proved unsustainable, illustrating the challenge of engaging in asymmetric
warfare without clear political and military aims.
The roots of Israel's failure predate the conflict,
extending to its inability to prevent Hamas from arming itself. Despite
advanced surveillance systems and intelligence capabilities, Israel could not
halt the influx of military resources into Gaza through sea routes or the
movement of humanitarian aid. Questions arise about how Hamas acquired digging
equipment, cement, and concrete for constructing tunnels and deploying
missiles, seemingly undetected by Israel's sophisticated surveillance
technology.
President Joe Biden's response has been criticized as
insufficiently pragmatic, and his defense secretary's call for restraint went
unheeded. The conflict's termination faces additional challenges from the
geopolitical landscape. The impact of the Ukraine crisis, disruptions in
international shipping due to Houthi activism, and the global economic
repercussions of the Red Sea and Ukraine situations further complicate the
prospects for resolution.
Efforts to introduce a peace-building force in Gaza, under
the auspices of the United Nations (UN), face hurdles, requiring Security
Council endorsement and a declared ceasefire. The key to conflict termination
lies in addressing the humanitarian crisis, with potential contributions from
Saudi Arabia and international organizations. However, the ambiguity in the
Arab world's stance impedes progress.
The conflict's resolution also hinges on the actions of
major global players, with Russia and China sharing a common interest in
preventing the escalation of hostilities. Iran, a key player with proxies
involved, remains reluctant to initiate peace efforts that may compromise its
power. The Houthis' activities in the Red Sea could exacerbate energy and
economic crises, and the window for diplomatic intervention may narrow as India
focuses on its elections in the coming months.
In conclusion, the Hamas-Israel war is likely to persist but
may tone down in intensity, resembling a prolonged standoff with sporadic major
strikes. The trajectory of the conflict will be influenced by various global
events, including US elections, the Ukraine crisis, Iran-Saudi relations, the
Houthi threat, and more, at least in the next six months.
0 Comments